Exploring the Complex Relationship Between Confidence and Accuracy

Abstract

The relationship between confidence and accuracy is a topic that has been the focus of research for more than a century. As a result, several studies have indicated a dynamic, complex, and multifaceted relationship. Although the topic is controversial, confidence still commonly used in forensics as a predictor of accuracy of memory. However, the literature shows that this relationship can be influenced by several variables, making it difficult to establish a direct and linear relationship between them. Therefore, the goal of this article is to understand the specificities of this complex interaction. To achieve this goal, we conducted a narrative review examining the main methods used to analyze the interaction between confidence and accuracy, as well as the main variables that influence such interaction. In addition, the article conducts a theoretical discussion of this relationship and discusses its  practical implications in everyday legal-criminal practice and contextualizes how this discussion has become established in Brazil. Although confidence is still used as an indicator of the veracity of testimony, it is important to consider that this relationship is affected by several factors, which highlights the need for caution when interpreting accuracy and confidence data.